Boris’s Surfboard
The image of Boris Johnson on a surfboard is a comic one, but waves are not funny anymore.
The UK’s Covid-19 infection rate is on an upward curve. Its vaccination level has plateaued and its health chiefs are worried. This winter another wave is coming; you can see it on the horizon. But Boris has promised his supporters, there will be no more lock-downs. The pubs and shops are open and we must complete our Christmas shopping!
To be fair, pandemics are hard to manage. Historically, neither the bacterial plagues that prospered due to poor sanitation nor the Spanish flu, which left millions dead across the world in 1919, can be said to have been well managed. Nonetheless, even Conservative MPs on the House of Commons Health and Social Care Committee have admitted that the Johnson administration got many things wrong at the start of the pandemic. This resulted in deaths, particularly among the elderly, that could have been avoided.
One of the Committee’s other findings was that ministers and scientific advisers were drawn to the herd immunity model and largely failed to learn from the experiences of other countries in both South-East Asia and in Europe. Herd immunity refers to a state in which the overwhelming majority of people have already developed immunity to a disease and thus block its spread. Among the model’s flaws is the assumption that if Covid-19 does not produce serious health problems for most younger people, high infection rates among them can be viewed as ultimately a positive step towards herd immunity.
One of the lessons offered by countries such as Singapore and South Korea was that mask-wearing and strict social distancing could reduce transmission of Covid-19 and other airborne viruses. Similarly, countries such as Germany managed the early stages better by developing a more robust “track-and-trace” system while case levels were low. In contrast, both the US and the UK have struggled with the concept of mandatory mask-wearing (citing behavioural scientists who argue that it induces a false sense of security) and they failed to develop track-and-trace before high, communal, infection levels reduced their effectiveness (the system then produced the “ping epidemic” over the summer when too many workers were being asked to stay home due to possible contact with someone infected).
Of course, the parliamentary committee also celebrated the vaccination roll-out as an important achievement. Here, too, Johnson took a gamble with people’s lives. The vaccine developers advised spacing the two doses at 12 weeks, but knowing that initial supplies were limited, the UK focused on giving as many people as possible a first dose, and only when supplies grew, did it step up delivery of second doses. This meant that Johnson was able to boast about the number of people who had been partially vaccinated.
As of October 18, the number of people of all ages in the UK who had received a first dose was 49,462,425 while the number of people who had received a second was 45,400,990. Roughly 66.6% of the population is fully vaccinated. The difference between the two figures is largely explained by the more recent vaccination programme for young people. Those aged 12 to 15 have only recently become eligible. But it also includes some who have not taken up the offer of a second jab. While the gamble of partially vaccinating as many people as possible has largely paid off, the rate of achieving full vaccination has slowed. As a result, the UK is not listed among the top 10 countries in the world in terms of full vaccination levels and has been overtaken by EU countries, such France, Italy and Spain; the latter fact being less trumpeted by ministers than their early claim that UK’s successful roll-out was due to Brexit. Partial vaccination also makes contracting the disease more likely and provides a potentially rich habitat for viral variants.
For the last week, reported UK cases have been running at and exceeding 40,000 per day, which is particularly worrying since this is based on confirmed testing whereas those infected and not reporting would certainly boost that figure. The government line has now switched to the desperate one that the key indicators are death and hospitalisation rates and that they have bought new antiviral drugs to treat the seriously ill; an argument that suggests that the old herd immunity model is still very much in play. As of 18 October, 7,749 people with Covid-19 were hospitalised in the UK compared to a 7-day average of less than 900 in hospital in late May. NHS leaders and the doctors’ professional body, the British Medical Association have both vainly urged the government to reintroduce mandatory mask-wearing in crowded public spaces and to enforce social distancing — measures mentioned as part of the government’s Plan B, but have been told that the pressure on them is certainly severe, but sustainable; hence, the government has made a considered judgment to do nothing.
Running quietly in the background is the reality that people in our economy are valued not for themselves (i.e. we should protect them as fellow human beings), but as producers and consumers, and especially the latter. Collectively, their spending keeps the economy humming. Even welfare payments can be justified on this basis as an economic stimulus.
The government can see this fresh wave coming. They are even monitoring another variant of concern that seems more infectious than Delta. But at this point, they are going to try to surf the wave. Collectively, we — and especially those working in the health and care sectors — will be placed between ministers and the virus, and as long as the wave doesn’t topple the board, the economy will grow and Boris and other surf club members will be content.
Of course, you can still wear a mask (for the sense of security it gives as well as the protection it offers), and you can wash your hands for 20 seconds as advised, and you can get your booster jab when you qualify (6 months after your second dose was administered). But for Boris’s sake, go to work and keep spending because otherwise something really dreadful will happen.
